Finger on The Pulse
Daily Comings and Goings in the World Economic and Geopolitical News.
Tuesday: February 25th 2025
21 employees from the Musk's DOGE group have resigned, while expressing their discontent with the "DOGE process" in a letter to the White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. The employees do not agree that cutting government workforce will not increase efficiency in the government and will leave critical public services at risk. One specific issue that was noted in the letter was how the employees of DOGE were subject to individual interviews with un-named personnel wearing visitor badges which ""created significant security risks". This interview process occurred a day after Trump's inauguration.
DJIA: 43,509.74
S&P: 5,982.73
Nasdaq: 19,242.61
Oil (WTI): 70.92
ICE NGX (T-1): 1.59
21 Civil Servants Working for DOGE Resign
Zelenskiy plans to travel to US to meet Trump on minerals deal, sources say
Bank of Korea cuts rates to bolster growth, lowers GDP forecast
Thursday: February 20th 2025
Venture Global LNG's export plant in Louisiana, Plaquemines, has received approval from the government to increase its production capacity by 3.2 MTPA to 27.2 MTPA. This increase equates to a 13% jump in capacity. This regulatory approval falls in line with Trump's aim to become the largest exporter of energy in the world.
Venture Global told investors last month that "its strategy is to have extended commissioning periods so it can maximize profits through spot sales at prices higher than it can get under long-term contracts, and to produce at well above the plant's design capacity to sell excess LNG on the spot market." I believe this means that while the plant is still in the final stages of construction (in commissioning phase), they intend to sell their LNG to the market at spot prices rather than through long-term contracts, which they predict will produce higher sales from higher spot prices and thus increased profits.
Meanwhile, Trump and Musk are slashing costs in the business of government. DOGE enacted a firing assault on 6,700 IRS employees who were all on probation. The IRS employs over 100,000, up from 80,000 at the beginning of the Biden administration who bolstered the ranks to enable his enforcement strategy on wealthy taxpayers. Both Musk and Trump have a mandate to slash $1 Trillion in spending to balance the $6.7 Trillion federal deficit.
DJIA: 44,561.11
S&P: 6,134.50
Nasdaq: 20,029.19
Oil (WTI): 72.18
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.12
US regulators approve Venture Global increase in Plaquemines LNG capacity, exports
IRS fires 6,000 employees as Trump slashes government
Canada Has Badly Misjudged the Future of LNG
Wednesday: February 19th 2025
There are 3 main themes impacting the price of oil today:
1) Russia & Ukraine war. If the war were to end today, the supply chain would be cleaned up and prices globally for oil and gas would drop.
2) Israel & Hamas ceasefire deal. If talks progress, conflict-driven supply disruption risks decline, reducing oil prices.
3) Trump's tariffs. Many factors in play here, but if prices for consumer goods go up in the U.S., the demand for gas will go down, and so will its prices.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that Russia is being bound by OPEC+ production caps more than the current sanctions it has had levied on by the U.S.. Russia also was the recipient of a Drone strike by Ukraine which reduced its Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) oil flows by 30% - roughly 380,000 bpd from Kazakhstan.
Canada, Brazil and West Africa to be sources of increased crude purchases from China post the 10% tariff from the U.S.. West African purchases have already been seen to increase for deliveries in March and April.
DJIA: 44,478.12
S&P: 6,117.76
Nasdaq: 19,994.50
Oil (WTI): 71.78
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.05
Oil rises on supply concerns as market awaits clarity on sanctions
China refiners buy more Brazilian, W.African crude as sanctions, tariffs disrupt supply
China's clean energy investments nearing scale of global fossil investments, researchers find
Tuesday: February 18th 2025
Russian and U.S. officials are currently meeting in Saudi Arabia in what is now the first high profile meeting between the two countries since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The discussions do not include any European allies, or Ukraine, which not all those that are left out are all too happy about. Trump campaigned on his extraordinary ability to reconcile the conflict in the East; now is time to pony up.
This week is starting slow after the long-weekend, with the tariff deadline extended until March 1st, I don't predict there to be many big stories popping out today as the business and political worlds climb out of their slumbers. Wednesday will be the release of housing starts and commercial building permit numbers in the U.S., so that will be something to look out for.
DJIA: 44,583.91
S&P: 6,121.60
Nasdaq: 20,090.56
Oil (WTI): 71.36
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.51
U.S., Russia Forge New Path After First High-Level Talks in Years
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre Pitches Major Natural-Resource Revamp to Counter Trump
Thursday: February 13th 2025
Trump is the first American President since the founding of Israel in 1948 to suggest the permanent removal of Palestinians from Gaza. In his view, relocating nearly two million Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt is the answer to this war. He plans for the U.S. to "take" and rebuild Gaza; a plan that has been starchily rejected by Arab governments and some Gazan citizens.
Oil prices fell today driven from increased crude inventory numbers in the U.S. as well as heightened optimism for towards peace deals between Russian and Ukraine. Oil prices have been buoyed by concerns over sufficient supply for the past number of weeks, exacerbated by the latest Russian sanctions enacted by the U.S..
Research conducted by the Peterson Institute found the average American home can expect to pay an additional $1,200 USD/year as a direct result solely from the March 1st tariffs on Canada (25%), Mexico (25%) and China (10%). Today, Trump will announce plans for "reciprocal" tariffs which aim to counter tariffs that other nations already have in place for American exports. Apparently, when foreign nations' citizens pay more for an American good through a tariff enacted by their local government, the U.S. is "ripped off"... Not sure how that works. I mean sure, there will be lest goods sold as a result, but lets be real here, the margins of U.S. domestic producers are not being directly shrunk by these foreign tariffs
Nevertheless, the countries who stand to be impacted most/targeted by these reciprocal tariffs are: India, Brazil, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian and African countries.
DJIA: 44,425.94
S&P: 6,060.59
Nasdaq: 19,696.92
Oil (WTI): 71.24
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.16
Trump Writes a New Playbook for Quagmires in Gaza and Ukraine
Israel Sees Opening for Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites, U.S. Intelligence Finds
Oil Prices Fall on Potential Ukraine Peace Talks
‘Today is the big one’: Trump teases new tariffs
Wednesday: February 12th 2025
The American Property Casualty Insurance Association claims that the imposing of tariffs on replacement vehicle parts alone can total up to $7BB. They show that 6 out of 10 auto parts are imported from either Canada (25%), Mexico (25%) or China (10%). All these increases in prices will drive higher car insurance costs for drivers: early predictions showing a 20% y/y increase in costs in the U.S..
Chevron is still tangled up in the court over their take over of Hess. The Guyana asset, of course being the crowning jewel of the deal, but also providing the source of all the hold-up. Exxon is exercising it's FROR over the 30% share in the Guyana oil field.
DJIA: 44,357.70
S&P: 6,025.08
Nasdaq: 19,436.51
Oil (WTI): 73.20
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.24
Ukraine’s Return to Pre-2014 Borders Is ‘Unrealistic Objective,’ Hegseth Says
Why Tariffs Will Make Car Insurance Even More Expensive
Chevron to lay off 15% to 20% of global workforce
Tuesday: February 11th 2025
Gas producers in the lower South East - Texas-Louisiana states are cutting costs and shutting in rigs amid low gas prices. A very similar situation to what we have seen in the Montney's. Low gas prices in the states are driven by lackluster demand (weather) and delays in the Golden Pass LNG project; drawing strikingly similar lines to the backdrop of LNG Canada and its sluggish start up. Producers have drilled gas in expectation of strong egress, but now are sitting on high storage levels and low Henry Hub prices. Some producers in the Haynesville region (a predominantly gaseous play located in east Texas & west Louisiana) are saying they won't be forking over the capex to ramp up production until prices hit $5/MMbtu (a 41% hike from its current $3.53 spot).
DJIA: 44,401.38
S&P: 6,049.32
Nasdaq: 19,602.11
Oil (WTI): 72.49
Sitting, Waiting, Wishing - Haynesville Gas Producers Hold Steady Ahead of Expected LNG Export Surge
Musk’s $97.4 Billion OpenAI Bid Piles Pressure on Sam Altman
The Truth About Trump’s Steel Tariffs
Monday: February 10th 2025
There is a clear track record that Gavin Newsom is anti-oil. The latest company (among others like Hewlett-Packard, Oracle, SpaceX and Tesla) who have thrown their hands in the air and made their HQ moves from California to Texas is Chevron. Green energy is certainly in the leading position for policy decisions in the state.
There are 3 categories of tariffs:
(1) Punitive - Canada, Mexico, China and Columbia tariffs tied to immigration and drug smuggling issues.
(2) Structural Long-Term - targeting trade irritants and imbalances. (ie. "foreign gov't subsidizing local firms, discriminating against U.S. companies or running large, persistent trade surpluses with the U.S."). Example: 10% levy on steel and aluminum imports.
(3) Across-The-Board - less known and less likely. Trump has floated the idea of 10%-20% tariffs on virtually all imports to offset the tax cuts the Republicans campaigned to enact.
DJIA: 44,396.92
S&P: 6,046.40
Nasdaq: 19,668.18
Oil (WTI): 71.00
Behind the Oil Industry’s Biggest Divorce: Chevron Versus California
Trump’s Next Round of Tariffs—25% on Steel and Aluminum—Won’t Be So Easily Averted
Indian oil companies in talks to buy U.S. LNG supplies
Friday: February 7th 2025
Geographical advantage of Canada vs U.S. Gulf Coast LNG shipping routes: From Gulf Coast it takes roughly 20 days for a tanker to traverse through the Panama Canal (subject to drought conditions) to eventually reach Asia. In contrast, from Canada's West Coast, it takes 10 days to ship.
Shipments of LNG from the U.S. via vessel hit a record high in August 2024, but surprisingly, most of the shipments that month (all but 1) chose the longer route around Africa (the Cape of Good Hope route).
DJIA: 44,762.57
S&P: 6,083.13
Nasdaq: 19,774.87
Oil (WTI): 70.56
How to Make North American Energy Great Again
The Dumbest Trade War in History
US LNG cargoes to Asia set record via Cape of Good Hope as Panama Canal stagnates in July
Friday: January 31st 2025
I get the indication that Trump is playing a chess match, while we are playing checkers. What I mean by this is: he holds all the cards. I don't think he has an explicit plan for these tariffs because, if he did, there would have been a clear date from the get-go about tariffs on an explicit list of goods they would apply to. No, I think he is out on the street jingling the change in his pocket to see who offers him the best deal. How is Canada playing Checkers? We are expending most of our efforts thinking up ways of how to satisfy his demands, bolstering the border, and, if the Oval Office doesn't see our value, then we will enact our own equally stringent policies in return - showing them how strong we are!... We are bargaining on our back foot!
I agree with Arlene Dickinson's post on linkedIn today. We should have more self-pride as a nation. There is no denying the need to maintain diplomacy, but honestly, why can't we grow our own dependency? Build new trading partners, invest in our industries for growth, and sell our value to the worlds economy at large.
DJIA: 45,054.36
S&P: 6,096.79
Nasdaq: 19,832.33
Oil (WTI): 73.20
Trump Aides Hunt for 11th-Hour Deal to Dial Back Canada-Mexico Tariffs
How much crude oil does the US import by country?
Canada budget deficit over first eight months of 2024/25 jumps to C$22.72 bln
Wednesday: January 29th 2025
Laying down a little lumber history for you... American soft wood producers complained that Canadian producers had an unfair advantage sourced from lower royalty costs charged from the Canadian government for harvesting lumber from crown land. This fueled Trump 1.0 to implement a tariff on soft wood from Canada to protect U.S. producers. This tariff was upheld by Biden and currently sits just under 15%. If Trump 2.0 slaps on another 25%, imported lumber would be grossed up 40% from tariffs, and those who would pay?... home builders, buyers and consumers.
There has been roughly 20-30 major Canadian oil projects that were proposed and supported by major players, but then fell through in the past 20 years. Some projects (TC Energy - Energy East Pipeline - $1bn) have major sunk costs that never get recovered. From a corporations' standpoint, why risk it? Why not just keep the money flowing, take cash flow and invest in certainties, like paying down debt/paying back shareholders! Unless the Canadian government were to put their own money behind a project, I would probably just invest for growth in other markets... Not good for Canadian growth.
Current Oil Outlook & Events:
Oil trade is expected to be choppy in the near-term as investors digest a string of recent developments, such as
1) U.S. tariff threats,
2) sanctions on Russian energy flows, and
3) economic growth concerns in top consuming nations.
Additionally, OPEC+ has a ministerial meeting booked for Feb 3rd - current production cuts in question.
DJIA: 44,819.55
S&P: 6,057.70
Nasdaq: 19,733.59
Oil (WTI): 73.95
Trump’s Lumber Tariffs and Disaster Recovery
Oil prices drop as US stockpile grows, tariffs remain in focus
Tuesday: January 28th 2025
One of the executive orders that Trump signed in his first week of office - aimed at reducing the regulations on the energy industry, was one that seeks to "blunt the implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act by federal agencies". The impact of this is to remove the ammunition of certain 'Green Groups' who have been able to invoke the law which would impose a federal review of the environmental impact of a project and it's relation to public interest. Used correctly, an energy project can be effectively derailed by adversaries.
Although Trump is pushing for a production boom, producers are staying conservative, opting to payback investors and improve their balance sheets, rather than forking over large sums of money to increase their outputs.
DJIA: 44,756.36
S&P: 6,026.97
Nasdaq: 19,418.22
Oil (WTI): 73.17
Trump Ramps Up Deportation Effort After Slow Start
Natural-Gas Firm Diversified Energy Strikes Deal for Permian Basin Player
Five Things to Know About Trump’s Energy Orders
Trump Executive Orders Target Biden’s Climate Executive Orders
Monday: January 27th 2025
There's this Chinese AI company (DeepSeek) who has reportedly "trained high-performing AI models cheaply", doing so without the expensive, most advanced gear that producers like Nvidia make. The result? An example that AI systems do not require the massive spending budgets to be functional. Nvidia's stock has dropped 10% in the wake of this news.
As we stand in limbo with the Parliament being prorogued, the Liberal Party of Canada is jostling for a leadership election. A recent report out of Vancouver's Fraser Institute found that over the Trudeau's government tenure the business investment per worker in Canada (adjusted for inflation) has declined by 20% from 2014-2021. In the States, the same figure has risen 14.6%. Okay, so what can be deduced from this stat? Not a ton; a simple figure alone does not paint a full picture of the quality of life of a Canadian family. But, I am confident to say that this decline in investment shines a light on a weakness in our economy (Canada) which will take much effort, influence, investment and leadership to remedy, let alone overcome.
DJIA: 44,148.84
S&P: 5,969.04
Nasdaq: 19,234.04
Oil (WTI): 74.47
Stock Market Today: Nvidia Stock Sinks in AI Rout Sparked by China's DeepSeek
Justin Trudeau Puts Canada on Ice
Friday: January 24th 2025
Vivek leaves the DOGE force spinning the change into a plan to run for governor in his home state of Ohio in 2026. Doge will be run solely by Musk as reports have come out about internal conflicts with Vivek between him and Trump and also with Musk. Doge has already been the recipients of 3 lawsuits from public advocacy groups and the government employees' union stating DOGE members are violating written Acts.
DJIA: 44,533.75
Nasdaq: 20,087.10
Oil (WTI): 74.28
How a Trump Trade War Puts Cheap Oil From Canada at Risk
Inside the Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy DOGE Divorce
Tuesday: January 21st 2025
Does this Tik Tok situation really pose an issue of national security to Americans and Canadians alike? I'm not so sure. I mean, yes, is the constant flow of stimulating, mind numbing and mood altering videos damaging to a persons health? Absolutely! But so is alcohol which is openly sold on store shelves for personal consumption. I feel governments have already insulated themselves in the most practical way against infiltration of foreign governments accessing sensitive information through Tik Tok (via banning the app from government employees work phones). So what else can a foreign power syphon out of us through the app? Likely not much more than anyone could through any other app.
Beautifully written line: "His first day in office showed that he will continue to ping-pong between the serious and the stunning, participating in official Washington rituals one minute and whipping up his devoted supporters the next."
The GSA is a government agency in charge of managing all federal property, services like computer hardware for government agents, vehicles and even caterings services. The GSA owns more than 7,500 vacant buildings across the U.S. culminating to a 12% occupancy rate. This will likely be a point of interest for the Musk-Ramaswamy-led DOGE office.
DJIA: 43,528.65
Nasdaq: 19,734.39
Oil (WTI): 76.84
American TikTokers Get a Taste of Chinese Censorship as They Rush to RedNote
Trump’s First Day in Office: Signing Orders, Spinning Yarns, Settling Scores
The U.S. Government Has a Landlord, and Trump Isn’t a Fan
A List of Trump’s Key Executive Orders—So Far
Monday: January 20th 2025
The day has come. Donald Trump has been inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. He did not, however offer niceties as he bluntly re-iterated the key messages of his campaign during his acceptance speech in front of Biden and Harris. We will see if this truly is the dawn of the "Golden Age of America".
With the new office now in charge, one of the executive orders expected to be signed later today is in reference to the resumption of LNG permitting in the U.S.. Permitting for companies in the U.S. has been slowed down by the previous administration, specifically by not being lenient for companies that are unable to uphold the agreements of the original permit. Often, companies must obtain initial purchase orders from counterparties and use these agreements in order to obtain financial funding which can then be translated into breaking ground for construction of the LNG plants. Trump has campaigned that extensions will be provided to companies more easily if they are unable to obtain funding, sale agreements, or initiate construction in a timely manner due to any particular reason.
A Trump 1 era executive order which allowed LNG to be shipped via rail car was thrown out by a 3 judge panel on last Friday (Jan 17 2025) due to insufficient planning and consideration when the order was signed. The order did not state how many train cars can be used in one shipment or the maximum speed of the train. Personally, I think this is smart to be thrown out. These tanks carry an immense amount of energy, if one were to be punctured or derailed in a suburban area, there need not even be a spark for there to be a death tole by the gas alone. Seems a risky way to transport the gas to me without having a deep study to the risks done.
Trump to make it easier for LNG export permit renewals, sources say
US court throws out Trump-era rule allowing LNG rail transport
Canada Set to Benefit from LNG Supply Opportunities on the West Coast
Friday: January 17th 2025
55 bcm = 1,942 bcf. Russia is diversifying its export business after their dominant position controlling the supply of gas to the European market has been severed, a direct consequence of its war with Ukraine. Iran, notably has the second largest gas reserves in the world as a country after Russia. But, it still imports gas (including from Turkmenistan). The article states the reason for this stems from severe under-investment caused by U.S. sanctions. This is a move that shows Russia will find willing consumers for its oil, no matter what the G7 world powers think.
Meanwhile, a new LNG facility on the northern coast of BC is making solid strides. On Dec 30th of 2024 Western LNG LLC completed a private placement deal securing $150 MM USD, which includes a rights package for certain key stakeholders to invest a remaining amount of undisclosed money which will be payable once final approval from the Final Investment Decision (FID) is made. This will be another LNG export facility delivering WCSB natural gas to the worlds market. This facility will harness hydroelectricity to reduce its carbon footprint while delivering a net-zero production. This is good news for the industry. Next up: Federal approval.
Oil set for fourth week of gains on US sanctions
Russia eyes 55 bcm of gas exports to Iran per year, Putin says
Significant investment in Western LNG funds Ksi Lisims LNG and PRGT projects to FID
Thursday: January 16th 2025
Netanyahu's coalition government is made up of supporters mostly on the right-wing side of the spectrum. some of these right wing group leaders are upset with the proposition of the cease-fire, saying Netanyahu does not stand up for the values which he preached when lobbying for the support of the individual political groups to join and support his coalition-built government. These far right leaders (National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir especially) do not wish to end the war while Hamas still has hundreds of soldiers embedded in Gaza.
Lebanon has a new President after 2 years of the vacant seat. Lebanon has been a weak state for decades dating back to a sizable war in 1975. Hezbollah voted for the president in 2016 and had a large influence on his success in winning the seat. But since Israel took aim at Hezbollah last year for firing missiles from within the Lebanese boarders, Hezbollah's influence and power has been greatly diminished, leaving room for a hopeful Lebanese government to retain domestic and political control.
Netanyahu Strikes Cautious Tone on Gaza Cease-Fire as He Tries to Hold Government Together
Israel Delays Cabinet Vote on Cease-Fire Deal, Blames Hamas for Reneging
Lebanon Elects New President in Sign of Hezbollah’s Waning Influence
Wednesday: January 15th 2025
U.S. midwest refineries are set up to process heavy Canadian crude and would take significant investment to re-tool for refining other lighter American-Drilled crude oil. The Canadian oil comes at a significant discount as well, and the steady flow from Canada is a key input in the supply chain which has allowed the U.S. to become a net energy exporter in the past few years.
Tariffs will make the end product of energy 25% more expensive for the American importer. Thus, they will import less energy, and therefore a reduction in demand is likely to be felt on the Canadian producer's finances. This reduction in energy imports into the U.S. from Canada is likely meant to be back-filled by American producers, supported by Trump's "Drill Baby Drill" campaign and impending pro-oil policies expected to come into play in his early days of presidency.
What does this mean for Canadian producers? I expect there to be a reduction in margins in the short term while the U.S. stumbles in transitioning its supply chain - maintaining current imports but by negotiating lower prices on energy, squeezing margins for Canadian producers. TD analysts predict a 15% cut in margins for producers. There will be tariff retaliations across industries, but until the energy tariff is lifted, I see reduced demand for Canadian energy for the next year.
Despite Trump's claims, U.S. doesn't really have a trade deficit with Canada. Here's why
Potential Tariff Impacts on Oil & Gas Under the Trump Administration
Alberta should prepare ‘for the worst’ if U.S. imposes 25% tariffs starting next week: economist
Tuesday: January 14th 2025
Oil prices are receiving support from below due to recent sanctions set by the U.S. on Russian energy producers and 183 oil carrying vessels, part of their "shadow fleet" whom actively divert sanctions on Russian energy exports in place in response to the ongoing geopolitical situation with Ukraine. All is fine in the short term, yet the U.S. EIA released a report today with flat demand growth for oil in 2025 and 2026. These forecasts from large agencies have a large impact on the market prices of oil I have come to see.
Where does this go? For the next hundred years, oil prices will be subject to the negative narrative of energy transition groups that claim global demand is shrinking each year for oil/gas/fossil fuels, which then will be accompanied by interested groups like the AB government releasing reports of contrary data predicting an extra mmb/d demand for the next 5 years. This back and forth will persist, while the occasional geopolitical conflict will break out choking, or potentially choking supply chains in the middle-east or South America, giving rise to healthy pop in oil prices giving encouraging optimism to those impacted by the profits of oil and gas companies.
This may seem pessimistic, but I don't feel this knowledge is a bad thing. In fact, I feel it a prudent perspective. By viewing the industry in this "cynical" lens one can remove emotion from the peaks and valleys of commodity prices and instead focus their efforts on pockets that produce profits. This is where I intend to grow my strengths in during my next 40+ years of my career.
Trump Plans ‘Energy Dominance’ Executive Orders After Inauguration
Oil prices slip on US energy demand forecast
Microsoft deal signals booming demand from data centers to power AI