Monday: March 31st 2025
LNG Canada is getting ever closer to completion. A shipment of LNG is coming to the port, not for export but for import. Apparently, it will be used to help fill the storage tanks and get them down to the super cooled temperature of minus 169 degrees Celsius needed to liquify natural gas. This process is expected to take 3 to 4 weeks, and once complete, the terminal will be ready to go into production. The start-up is not yet set, but LNG Canada is expected to be shipping out cargoes roughly every 2 days, with each shipment valued in the $150-$220 million range.
B.C. is expected to begin reaping a revenue windfall from the onset of LNG Canada. "This year’s provincial budget forecasts the treasury will collect a combined $3.3 billion in natural gas royalties over the next three years, up from about $600 million last year".
In feasibility investigations back in 2018, it was projected that the LNG market would need to boast a price of $8-$12/BTU of LNG in order for LNG Canada to be economically feasible, according to Werner Antweiler, a professor of economics at UBC.
DJIA: 41,382.52
S&P: 5,527.91
Nasdaq: 17,045.44
Oil (WTI): 69.43
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.37
Incoming LNG tanker marks near completion of Kitimat export terminal
Natural gas producers await LNG Canada’s start, but will it be the fix for prices?
Friday: March 28th 2025
More tariffs are coming. Not only the next round of trade actions on April 2nd, but a 25% fee will be levied on all vehicles imported into the U.S. will come into effect on March 3rd. We just don't know what goods will be impacted and to what extent on March 2nd. Canada already has these tariffs placed on its exports: 25% on all goods not compliant with USMCA, 10% on all energy imports to the U.S., 10% on Potash fertilizer and 25% on Steel and aluminum.
Canada has taken the hardest-line in response to the U.S. trade onslaught in comparison to other countries impacted. Carney has stated the reciprocal tariffs that Canada has placed on C$60 Billion U.S. goods will go towards Canadian workers. The government will also hopefully (as they have indicated) be working towards building our own economy, reducing internal trade barriers, working with provinces to identify major development projects and ensuring legislation assists in their survival and, of course, reducing the country's dependence on the U.S. and finding new reliable trading partners.
DJIA: 42,245.82
S&P: 5,679.20
Nasdaq: 17,722.09
Oil (WTI): 69.91
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.08
Canada’s Carney Bets on a Tough Posture to Counter Trump’s Threats
Canada Aims to Respond to Latest U.S. Tariffs When Trump’s Next Salvo Is Fired
Panama Ports Deal Touted by Trump to Miss April 2 Deadline
See all the tariffs Trump has enacted, threatened and canceled
Wednesday: March 26th 2025
Back when Stephen Harper's government approved the Northern Gateway project, nearly every coastal municipality and First Nation on the West Coast passed resolutions to oppose the project. This points to the disruptive power that First Nations have shown, and the necessity to harness co-investment in projects with First Nations communities in future and ongoing energy projects.
Justin Trudeaus government, no doubt to appease the First Nations communities on the West Coast, enacted Bill-C48, the Oil Tanker Memorandum in 2019. "This legislation prohibits oil tankers carrying large quantities of crude oil from docking along British Columbia’s central and northern coastlines. The act aims to preserve the region’s delicate marine ecosystems and respect the wishes of Indigenous populations.". Bill C48 stands directly in the way of any major crude oil export terminal that could be built on the West Coast. The bill puts a limit on the size and type of vessel allowed within a certain distance of land - immediately eliminating an oil tanker of significant size from being allowed to dock.
Still, Liberal politicians are not the only ones standing in the way of a new export port in BC: "According to Joy Thorkelson, the North Coast representative for the United Fishermen and Allied Workers’ Union, the united front which stopped Enbridge [Northern Gateway Project] the last time, is still alive and well and would shut down any attempt to reinvigorate the idea of oil tankers traversing these waters."
To the First Nation communities, LNG tankers are a lot safer than bitumen or crude tankers, and are thus in support, or at least not as opposed to LNG tankers traversing through the Douglas Channel to Kitimat.
DJIA: 42,665.85
S&P: 5,771.66
Nasdaq: 18,217.33
Oil (WTI): 69.16
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.05
Some First Nations Ready ‘To Rise’ If Poilievre Lifts BC Oil Tanker Ban
Alberta taking Ottawa to court over updated federal impact assessment law
Tuesday: March 25th 2025
More than half of newly sold vehicles in Russia are Chinese-made. Prompting Russia, a friendly-trade partner with China to explore the prospect of sanctions on these Chinese exports. Sanctions have been on a steady rise globally, for decades. In the past few years, countries like Mexico, Vietnam and South Korea have been steadily increasing tariffs and duties on Chinese goods. This chart below provides a good representation of what we're talking about:
Source: WSJ.com
Currently, more than 90% of 5,200 product categories are subject to import restrictions (tariffs, quotas, anti-dumping restrictions, etc.), up from 50% in 2016. According to the Tax Foundation, a think tank that studies tax policy, the US would now be implementing 8.4% tariffs on all goods imported on average - the same rate as in 1946. The average tariff rate on imported goods into the U.S. was 1.5% when Trump first took office in 2016.
Assuming Trump sets forth his "retaliatory tariff policy' on April 2nd, tariffs on U.S. imports could hit 18% according to Fitch Ratings.
"Returning to the level of openness to trade that existed a decade ago will be tough, assuming countries even wish to do so. The world’s trade referee, the WTO, has been sidelined by Washington, which has accused it of overreach into domestic-policy decisions and refused to approve judges to its top appeals panel since 2019. The big, multilateral efforts to reduce trade barriers that the WTO once shepherded are likely a thing of the past."
DJIA: 42,635.54
S&P: 5,775.96
Nasdaq: 18,207.96
Oil (WTI): 69.11
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.02
U.S. Agrees to Help Russia Boost Exports in Black Sea Truce
Trade War Explodes Across World at Pace Not Seen in Decades
Europe, Canada Hit Back at U.S. Steel Tariffs
Sunday: March 23rd 2025
The conversations between Russia and Ukraine seem to be moving forward with the intervention with the U.S.. Yet, there are no major concessions being made. In any peace-deal that may or may not be signed, the Kremlin continues to hold strong certain points which doesn't really point to there being a true peace deal being made anyways. Russia is headstrong about annexing large swatches of Ukrainian land permanently, will not allow European peacekeepers to step foot onto Ukrainian soil after a deal is made. Apparently, the peace deal would have to guarantee Ukraine's neutral status (i.e. no NATO for you Ukraine). It's clear that Russia is not willing to let Ukraine leave this war any stronger than it was previously...
Enter Trump. To some, an angle for Trump to manipulate this situation for his benefit is a fruitful thought. One wouldn't need to leap too far to imagine a massive minerals deal being struck, depriving Ukraine from massive wealth, while losing land to Russia and being left with no other strong alliances post war; leaving Ukraine weak. Well, if Vladimir couldn't end the war, why can't and American fill their pockets too??
Putin Agrees to Pause Attacks on Ukraine Energy Infrastructure in Call With Trump
Friday: March 21st 2025
The cease-fire between Hamas and Israel, which was signed 2 months ago had multiple phases. The first phase was conducted successfully; this stage resulted in the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for more than 1,700 Palestinians who were held in Israeli prisons. The second phase was meant to see the release of all remaining hostages from both sides, and conducting the talks to end the war. Somewhere along those lines, the discussions fell through and fighting has resumed in Gaza.
Today, Israel has held firm that they want the release of the remaining 59 hostages (at least 24 are believed to still be alive) or ground insurgence of troops in Gaza will continue. One of the remaining Hamas hostages is an American-Israeli captive, Edan Alexander, whom is a priority for the Trump administration to be released.
Today, Musk is receiving a "top-secret briefing" on China from the Pentagon. Musk, who relies on China for car manufacturing and mineral inputs in its batteries, can be positioned to capitalize on information not known by its competitors. This is also true for Musk's SpaceX which competes for military contracts.
In the Data Center space, the race for affordable data storage is running hot. There is a tug-a-war for the dominant technique to storing data: Hard-Drive storage or Solid-State storage. Solid-State is like the drive in a personal computer, whereas Hard-Drive is like the CD-ROMs of the past, but much larger and much more powerful. As of now, Hard-Drive's are in control of the market, delivering a cheaper cost-per-terabyte than Solid-State's. But this may change as years go by as investment in Solid-State storage is projected to overtake Hard-Drive's by the end of this decade.
DJIA: 41,763.40
S&P: 5,630.73
Nasdaq: 17,519.84
Oil (WTI): 68.35
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.23
Israel’s Defense Minister Threatens Permanent Occupation of Parts of Gaza
Elon Musk Arrives at Pentagon for Discussions About China
Lasers, Magnets and the $40 Billion Fight to Store the World’s Data
It's time for Canadians to challenge the American domination of the LNG space
Thursday: March 20th 2025
AECO prices are still depressed as producers are sitting on over-supply anticipating the egress impacts of LNG Canada to ramp up full blow. The first shipment out of Kitimat is tentatively expected for this July.
DJIA: 41,795.26
S&P: 5,646.92
Nasdaq: 17,586.06
Oil (WTI): 67.29
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.17
Canada PM Carney to call for April 28 election on Sunday, Globe and Mail reports
AECO Prison Blues - Western Canadian Gas Prices Stuck Behind Bars, Even After Winter Price Surges
Thursday: March 13th 2025
U.S. aluminum company Alcoa's COE Bill Oplinger said that 20,000 direct U.S. industry jobs would be cut and as many as 80,000 indirect U.S. jobs to be eliminated due to the tariffs on Canadian imports. "It's bad for American Workers" stated Oplinger at the recent BMO Global Metals and Mining conference. Currently, America is short 4 million metric tones of aluminum annually and this deficit is largely backfilled by Canadian and Mexican imports. U.S. domestic production of aluminum in 2024 totaled approximately 678,000 metric tones.
It's tough to argue the positives to a 25% tariff specifically on aluminum since roughly 80% of the US consumption of Aluminum in 2024 was imported from foreign countries. The pop cans, the automobiles and appliances that rely on aluminum as integral inputs will see a theoretical increase of 25% in item costs. Unless domestic production will be heavily subsidized and companies will be paid bursaries of some sort, the likely impact will be lost jobs and higher final costs to consumers.
DJIA: 41,280.05
S&P: 5,994.45
Nasdaq: 17,598.56
Oil (WTI): 67.69
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.03
Algoma Steel Warns of Effects of Tariffs on Operations
U.S. to Restore Military Support to Ukraine After It Agrees to Cease-Fire
Wednesday: March 12th 2025
Inflation data in the U.S. for February actually looked pretty good. It came down from 3.0% in January to 2.8%, but economists aren't celebrating yet. Most of the tariffs being enacted were not in place for this latest reading, and thus, will take further (1 or 2) readings to be fully represented in the data. In terms of food inflation, Eggs are the largest driver of increases in February. Prices have rises due as a result of bird flu in the U.S..
The 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico have taken effect. All goods except for Energy products and potash (includes various mined and manufactured salts that contain potassium in water-soluble form. potash is primarily used in fertilizers). Canada has reacted to the U.S. enacted tariffs by placing their own tariffs on American