Thursday: February 27th 2025
Who knows what is going through ole Donald's minds here. obviously there's some cat-and-mouse going on with Canada and Mexico. So far, we have been playing ball, but the leash has yet to be removed. Trump posted on Truth Social today that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to resume on March 4th. I think those are likely to be pushed back again. At least for Canada's end, we have abided by his conditions, namely: declared Cartels a terrorist orgs, increase border patrols and appointed Kevin Brosseau as Canada's Fentanyl Czar.
Canada is not out of the woods yet so to speak. Trump also stated in his post that the second round of tariffs, "Reciprocal Tariffs" [see post from February 10th below] will be going into effect April 2nd.
Residential mortgage rates in the U.S. remain high and are feeding the slowdown in sales in January. The popular 30 year fixed rate loans have been hovering around 7% since December in the States.
With the Venezuelan oil deal being cut, Gulf coast alternative grades (Colombian, Ecuadorean and Guyanese) saw a spike as refiners explored alternatives. According to EIA, Venezuela accounts for 13% of U.S. Gulf Coast refineries in 2024. Shipments are still operating as usual out of Venezuela, regardless of the latest action by Trump to axe the Chevron oil license.
DJIA: 43,516.4
S&P: 5,981.88
Nasdaq: 19,212.36
Oil (WTI): 68.82
ICE NGX (T-1): 1.55
Trump says tariffs on Canada, Mexico still set for next week
Pending home sales drop to the lowest level on record in January
Chevron license termination could lead to new oil export pact in Venezuela, sources say
Wednesday: February 26th 2025
Trump is singing a similar tune to that sung 50 years ago. Meir Kahane, an American born ultranationalist politician and rabbi lobbied the idea of expulsion of Arab citizens from Gaza. The idea, which at that time was so extreme that the Likud party, the same right-wing party that Prime Minister Metanyahu now heads, would physically remove themselves from the room any time Kahane would speak. Today, Trumps views are being encouraged by similar right-wing politicians as a splendid idea. Of course, not everyone in the Middle East is jiving with the music. Trump wants Egypt and Jordan to house the refugees. Egypt and Jordan are not too keen on this idea, however.
Talking LNG, a study by the Conference Board of Canada found that an LNG export industry equivalent to 30 MTPA (LNG Canada Phase 1 = 14 MPTA, Phase 2 = 28 MTPA) would inject $7.4 BB into Canadas economy over 30 years + supporting 65,000 jobs.
Canada has received visits from Japan, Greece, Germany, and Poland leaders who expressed their interest and desires for our Natural Gas. All of which received noncommittal rebukes from the Canadian leader Justin Trudeau.
DJIA: 43,635.42
S&P: 5,970.87
Nasdaq: 19,109.32
Oil (WTI): 69.11
ICE NGX (T-1): 1.70
Trump’s Vision for Gaza Revives an Idea Once Reviled in Israel
Supporting Canadian LNG projects is good for the economy and the planet
Federal government continues to reject golden opportunities to export LNG
Tuesday: February 25th 2025
21 employees from the Musk's DOGE group have resigned, while expressing their discontent with the "DOGE process" in a letter to the White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. The employees do not agree that cutting government workforce will not increase efficiency in the government and will leave critical public services at risk. One specific issue that was noted in the letter was how the employees of DOGE were subject to individual interviews with un-named personnel wearing visitor badges which ""created significant security risks". This interview process occurred a day after Trump's inauguration.
DJIA: 43,509.74
S&P: 5,982.73
Nasdaq: 19,242.61
Oil (WTI): 70.92
ICE NGX (T-1): 1.59
21 Civil Servants Working for DOGE Resign
Zelenskiy plans to travel to US to meet Trump on minerals deal, sources say
Bank of Korea cuts rates to bolster growth, lowers GDP forecast
Thursday: February 20th 2025
Venture Global LNG's export plant in Louisiana, Plaquemines, has received approval from the government to increase its production capacity by 3.2 MTPA to 27.2 MTPA. This increase equates to a 13% jump in capacity. This regulatory approval falls in line with Trump's aim to become the largest exporter of energy in the world.
Venture Global told investors last month that "its strategy is to have extended commissioning periods so it can maximize profits through spot sales at prices higher than it can get under long-term contracts, and to produce at well above the plant's design capacity to sell excess LNG on the spot market." I believe this means that while the plant is still in the final stages of construction (in commissioning phase), they intend to sell their LNG to the market at spot prices rather than through long-term contracts, which they predict will produce higher sales from higher spot prices and thus increased profits.
Meanwhile, Trump and Musk are slashing costs in the business of government. DOGE enacted a firing assault on 6,700 IRS employees who were all on probation. The IRS employs over 100,000, up from 80,000 at the beginning of the Biden administration who bolstered the ranks to enable his enforcement strategy on wealthy taxpayers. Both Musk and Trump have a mandate to slash $1 Trillion in spending to balance the $6.7 Trillion federal deficit.
DJIA: 44,561.11
S&P: 6,134.50
Nasdaq: 20,029.19
Oil (WTI): 72.18
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.12
US regulators approve Venture Global increase in Plaquemines LNG capacity, exports
IRS fires 6,000 employees as Trump slashes government
Canada Has Badly Misjudged the Future of LNG
Wednesday: February 19th 2025
There are 3 main themes impacting the price of oil today:
1) Russia & Ukraine war. If the war were to end today, the supply chain would be cleaned up and prices globally for oil and gas would drop.
2) Israel & Hamas ceasefire deal. If talks progress, conflict-driven supply disruption risks decline, reducing oil prices.
3) Trump's tariffs. Many factors in play here, but if prices for consumer goods go up in the U.S., the demand for gas will go down, and so will its prices.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that Russia is being bound by OPEC+ production caps more than the current sanctions it has had levied on by the U.S.. Russia also was the recipient of a Drone strike by Ukraine which reduced its Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) oil flows by 30% - roughly 380,000 bpd from Kazakhstan.
Canada, Brazil and West Africa to be sources of increased crude purchases from China post the 10% tariff from the U.S.. West African purchases have already been seen to increase for deliveries in March and April.
DJIA: 44,478.12
S&P: 6,117.76
Nasdaq: 19,994.50
Oil (WTI): 71.78
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.05
Oil rises on supply concerns as market awaits clarity on sanctions
China refiners buy more Brazilian, W.African crude as sanctions, tariffs disrupt supply
China's clean energy investments nearing scale of global fossil investments, researchers find
Tuesday: February 18th 2025
Russian and U.S. officials are currently meeting in Saudi Arabia in what is now the first high profile meeting between the two countries since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The discussions do not include any European allies, or Ukraine, which not all those that are left out are all too happy about. Trump campaigned on his extraordinary ability to reconcile the conflict in the East; now is time to pony up.
This week is starting slow after the long-weekend, with the tariff deadline extended until March 1st, I don't predict there to be many big stories popping out today as the business and political worlds climb out of their slumbers. Wednesday will be the release of housing starts and commercial building permit numbers in the U.S., so that will be something to look out for.
DJIA: 44,583.91
S&P: 6,121.60
Nasdaq: 20,090.56
Oil (WTI): 71.36
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.51
U.S., Russia Forge New Path After First High-Level Talks in Years
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre Pitches Major Natural-Resource Revamp to Counter Trump
Thursday: February 13th 2025
Trump is the first American President since the founding of Israel in 1948 to suggest the permanent removal of Palestinians from Gaza. In his view, relocating nearly two million Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt is the answer to this war. He plans for the U.S. to "take" and rebuild Gaza; a plan that has been starchily rejected by Arab governments and some Gazan citizens.
Oil prices fell today driven from increased crude inventory numbers in the U.S. as well as heightened optimism for towards peace deals between Russian and Ukraine. Oil prices have been buoyed by concerns over sufficient supply for the past number of weeks, exacerbated by the latest Russian sanctions enacted by the U.S..
Research conducted by the Peterson Institute found the average American home can expect to pay an additional $1,200 USD/year as a direct result solely from the March 1st tariffs on Canada (25%), Mexico (25%) and China (10%). Today, Trump will announce plans for "reciprocal" tariffs which aim to counter tariffs that other nations already have in place for American exports. Apparently, when foreign nations' citizens pay more for an American good through a tariff enacted by their local government, the U.S. is "ripped off"... Not sure how that works. I mean sure, there will be lest goods sold as a result, but lets be real here, the margins of U.S. domestic producers are not being directly shrunk by these foreign tariffs
Nevertheless, the countries who stand to be impacted most/targeted by these reciprocal tariffs are: India, Brazil, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian and African countries.
DJIA: 44,425.94
S&P: 6,060.59
Nasdaq: 19,696.92
Oil (WTI): 71.24
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.16
Trump Writes a New Playbook for Quagmires in Gaza and Ukraine
Israel Sees Opening for Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites, U.S. Intelligence Finds
Oil Prices Fall on Potential Ukraine Peace Talks
‘Today is the big one’: Trump teases new tariffs
Wednesday: February 12th 2025
The American Property Casualty Insurance Association claims that the imposing of tariffs on replacement vehicle parts alone can total up to $7BB. They show that 6 out of 10 auto parts are imported from either Canada (25%), Mexico (25%) or China (10%). All these increases in prices will drive higher car insurance costs for drivers: early predictions showing a 20% y/y increase in costs in the U.S..
Chevron is still tangled up in the court over their take over of Hess. The Guyana asset, of course being the crowning jewel of the deal, but also providing the source of all the hold-up. Exxon is exercising it's FROR over the 30% share in the Guyana oil field.
DJIA: 44,357.70
S&P: 6,025.08
Nasdaq: 19,436.51
Oil (WTI): 73.20
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.24
Ukraine’s Return to Pre-2014 Borders Is ‘Unrealistic Objective,’ Hegseth Says
Why Tariffs Will Make Car Insurance Even More Expensive
Chevron to lay off 15% to 20% of global workforce
Tuesday: February 11th 2025
Gas producers in the lower South East - Texas-Louisiana states are cutting costs and shutting in rigs amid low gas prices. A very similar situation to what we have seen in the Montney's. Low gas prices in the states are driven by lackluster demand (weather) and delays in the Golden Pass LNG project; drawing strikingly similar lines to the backdrop of LNG Canada and its sluggish start up. Producers have drilled gas in expectation of strong egress, but now are sitting on high storage levels and low Henry Hub prices. Some producers in the Haynesville region (a predominantly gaseous play located in east Texas & west Louisiana) are saying they won't be forking over the capex to ramp up production until prices hit $5/MMbtu (a 41% hike from its current $3.53 spot).
DJIA: 44,401.38
S&P: 6,049.32
Nasdaq: 19,602.11
Oil (WTI): 72.49
Sitting, Waiting, Wishing - Haynesville Gas Producers Hold Steady Ahead of Expected LNG Export Surge
Musk’s $97.4 Billion OpenAI Bid Piles Pressure on Sam Altman
The Truth About Trump’s Steel Tariffs
Monday: February 10th 2025
There is a clear track record that Gavin Newsom is anti-oil. The latest company (among others like Hewlett-Packard, Oracle, SpaceX and Tesla) who have thrown their hands in the air and made their HQ moves from California to Texas is Chevron. Green energy is certainly in the leading position for policy decisions in the state.
There are 3 categories of tariffs:
(1) Punitive - Canada, Mexico, China and Columbia tariffs tied to immigration and drug smuggling issues.
(2) Structural Long-Term - targeting trade irritants and imbalances. (ie. "foreign gov't subsidizing local firms, discriminating against U.S. companies or running large, persistent trade surpluses with the U.S."). Example: 10% levy on steel and aluminum imports.
(3) Across-The-Board - less known and less likely. Trump has floated the idea of 10%-20% tariffs on virtually all imports to offset the tax cuts the Republicans campaigned to enact.
DJIA: 44,396.92
S&P: 6,046.40
Nasdaq: 19,668.18
Oil (WTI): 71.00
Behind the Oil Industry’s Biggest Divorce: Chevron Versus California
Trump’s Next Round of Tariffs—25% on Steel and Aluminum—Won’t Be So Easily Averted
Indian oil companies in talks to buy U.S. LNG supplies
Friday: February 7th 2025
Geographical advantage of Canada vs U.S. Gulf Coast LNG shipping routes: From Gulf Coast it takes roughly 20 days for a tanker to traverse through the Panama Canal (subject to drought conditions) to eventually reach Asia. In contrast, from Canada's West Coast, it takes 10 days to ship.
Shipments of LNG from the U.S. via vessel hit a record high in August 2024, but surprisingly, most of the shipments that month (all but 1) chose the longer route around Africa (the Cape of Good Hope route).
DJIA: 44,762.57
S&P: 6,083.13
Nasdaq: 19,774.87
Oil (WTI): 70.56
How to Make North American Energy Great Again
The Dumbest Trade War in History
US LNG cargoes to Asia set record via Cape of Good Hope as Panama Canal stagnates in July