Friday: April 11th 2025
Banks have started reporting in the U.S., and without surprise, their trading divisions have seen handsome returns during these turbulent markets. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley all reported earnings beats for the first quarter of 2025. But, it isn't all sunshine and rainbows. The Bank heads are warning of the other shoe to fall in coming months. These market circumstances brought on by these tariffs are expected to have a negative impact on loan delinquencies as well as slowing down M&A activity given changing financial models.
DJIA: 39,493.42
S&P: 5,255.56
Nasdaq: 16,358.53
Oil (WTI): 60.20
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.21
JPMorgan Warns Economy Is Facing Considerable Turbulence
Why Trump Blinked on Tariffs Just Hours After They Went Into Effect
Wednesday: April 9th 2025
Oil took another dive today as fears are being stoked of a recession caused by the trade war bubbling up between China and the U.S.. This morning at 12:01am EST the 104% tariffs on China took place in response to a 50% additional (84% total) tariff on U.S. goods coming into China in response to the Trump tariffs put on Chinese Goods. This counter tariff will start tomorrow.
The result is a WTI that is now trading under $60/barrel. This is the result of supply chains adjusting their schedules for oil consumption in the months to come downwards based on the economic fears of a recession driven from the China-U.S. trade battle. If a recession hits, there will be less oil consumption and thus prudent companies will need to source less oil in order to not create an over-supply in the market. On the flip side, if these tensions were to quickly dissipate, the oil prices will likely rebound to higher levels than they were only a few days ago.
M&A deal making has been screeched to a halt because of these tariffs. The numbers no longer look as healthy.
Up to 50 nations have pulled up a chair to the negotiating table with the White House regarding trade. Trump's Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent does not see these negotiations converting into long-term trade deals in the near future, however. "They’ve been bad actors for a long time, and it’s not the kind of thing you can negotiate away in days or weeks" said Bessent.
Yesterday, in a rural area of Fort Ransom, North Dakota, the Keystone Pipeline had a rupture and the flow of oil was stopped. Apparently, the flow was stopped within 2 minutes and the spill was confined to a field, but nothing else has been made public. It is not clear if the pipeline is flowing oil again.
DJIA: 37,387.91
S&P: 4,965.28
Nasdaq: 15,295.44
Oil (WTI): 58.32
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.35
Big Bank CEOs Reckon With Their Lack of Influence on Trump
Oil prices plummet on China's retaliation against US tariffs
Keystone Crude Oil Pipeline Shut After Leak
Tuesday: April 8th 2025
Yesterday, Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran were to begin direct talks regarding Tehran's nuclear program, signaling a possible end situation to this feud. The conclusion, could be an increase in global oil supply, or a military conflict between the two nations if a deal is not struck (which would likely entail Iran scaling back their uranium enrichment activities).
Trump to sign an executive order today to boost the coal production in the U.S.. Coal now accounts for less than 20% of the energy generation in the States, down from 50% in 2000.
CNQ breaks even at $35 WTI. Very strong operations and some say it is the best ran oil company in the country.
Venezuela is in the cross hairs of the White House. A crime syndicate called Tren de Aragua has been involved in kid-napping and extortion activities not limited within the boarders of Venezuela, but stretching boarders on South and North America. In Trump's view, this registered Foreign Terrorist Organization in the United States is a serious threat not only to the democracy of the oil-rich nation (the gang was linked to the killing of an opposing political candidate), but also the public safety of Americans both international and domestic. In corroboration with a main tenant of Trump's election campaign, he is waging a war on foreign gangs who have set up roots on American soil. One of the major gangs in question is the Tren de Aragua of Venezuela, and as such, Trump is targeting Venezuelan oil exports.
The cost set by the U.S. is a 25% tariff on oil imported from any country that imports oil from Venezuela. These tariffs are in addition to any other reciprocal tariffs already in place on any country as listed in the Rose Garden address or prior to. The tariff will stay in place for 1 year after the last import the country made from Venezuela. This order was made to be effective on April 2nd 2025, but has not been explicitly announced to be in effect yet. The biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil = China importing 62% of Venezuelan energy exports. India and Spain are the next closest purchasers.
DJIA: 38,827.10
S&P: 5,193.57
Nasdaq: 16,181.04
Oil (WTI): 61.03
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.45
Oil Prices Hold Around Multi-Year Lows as China Braces for US Trade War
Trump set to sign executive orders to boost US coal
Imposing Tariffs on Countries Importing Venezuelan Oil: Executive Order
Trump’s Threatened Tariff on Buyers of Venezuelan Oil Could Squeeze China
Monday: April 7th 2025
Sure this is a buying opportunity. Depending on your investment timeline. Long-term, we know that the markets always recover to test and break through all-time highs. Buying diversified funds and holding them for the long-term will make you money. But that doesn't mean its a prudent investment for the short-term. These reciprocal tariffs are potentially structural in nature - meaning, if Trump does not intend to use them as bargaining chips and means to keep them in place indefinitely, the supply chain in virtually every industry just changed forever. If that is the case, then it may be a long time for companies and the market as a whole to re-establish themselves for growth moving forward.
However, we don't know what Trump's true intentions here are. Rightfully so, the markets could see reprieve from the shadow of a global trade war in a few ways:
1- foreign countries could capitulate to Trumps demands and lift their restrictions on U.S. exports
2- The tariffs could lead to so much pain and strife that Trump revokes all/most/some of the tariffs allowing markets to resume trade as normal
3- The Federal Reserve could step in as they did in previous crisis' by swallowing up risky assets like mortgages and high yield corporate bonds supporting the market and economy
OR, we could see all these tariffs stay in place, forcing a global recession. One thing is for sure; it is too early, and too close to recent market highs and record investor sentiment readings to know if we have seen the bottom. VIX levels are as high as the global banking crisis of 2018 and the covid-19 crash of 2020. The market recovered to all-time highs in the years that followed, and the same will happen now too.
But, have we met the bottom of the market yet? I think we still need to see a more quarterly earnings reports - likely representing sizable loses from these tariffs on the loss of sales and the cost of setting up new supply chain infrastructure before we can definitively say the bottom has been struck. It might be time to sell some calls options.
DJIA: 37,879.65
S&P: 4,953.79
Nasdaq: 14,978.03
Oil (WTI): 61.12
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.49
How Far Does the Market Have to Fall Before It’s Time to Buy?
The Stock Market’s Fear Gauges Point to a Bounce, Not a Bottom
Americans Are Sitting on a Cash Pile as Stocks Reel
Friday: April 4th 2025
Footwear retailers will be feeling the impacts of the tariffs. For the most part, footwear companies have their shoes produced by the hardest hit nations of the recent "reciprocal tariffs" announced by trump on April 2nd. Vietnam (46%), China (34%), India(26%) and Indonesia (32%) are the world's largest footwear producing countries - and correspondingly are the main nations where footwear companies source their products from. In a recent report, Nike's Air Force 1 costs the company $18 USD to produce in Vietnam. With the 46% tariff, the new cost would rise by $8.28 for the company.
The trade war is heating up with China taking aim at the U.S. in what they call an "eye for an eye" offensive. China placed a reciprocal 34% tariff on all U.S. exports in response to the same levy on Chinese exports. The difference is that China exports far more to the U.S. than China imports from the States. This reciprocal tariff from China is set to go into place the day after the U.S. one, on Thursday of next week.
This turmoil is wide-spread and not isolated in the financial markets. With trillions of dollars being erased from the financial markets, history has shown there to be a buying opportunity. I believe that to be true today as contagion spreads to companies that won't be as severely impacted from these tariffs. I am looking at the solidified players in their sectors: Amazon.com, for example will see a significant cost increase on its retail store business since much of the products being sold are produced in countries that are impacted by these reciprocal tariffs. But, Amazon has a wide breadth of product and service offerings that can insolate the earnings of the parent company from the added costs from tariffs (AWS, Amazon services - music streaming platform, Audible, IMDb.com). A company whose revenue is widely dispersed will be better equipped to maintain cashflows and route investments into more profitable avenues during volatile times.
DJIA: 40,097.90
S&P: 5,292.14
Nasdaq: 16,045.60
Oil (WTI): 66.64
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.58
Here’s how much more Nike’s Air Jordans could cost after tariffs hit
From Nike to Apple: which US brands could be hit hardest by Trump tariffs and what’s at stake?
China Hits Back at Trump With Sweeping Tariffs on All U.S. Goods
Wednesday: April 2nd 2025
The most common and abundantly available (as it currently stands) LNG shipping vessels globally are two-stroke engines with the capability to carry 174,000 cubic meters (3,180,000 mcf). This is compared with the largest Q-Max LNG Carrier "Al Dafna" a Qatari vessel which can carry a total of 271,000 cubic meters (5,935,000 mcf) of LNG per load.
Trump's Department of Energy has moved to strike a Biden policy from April 2023, that required extra criteria for LNG exporters to comply with as a preliminary step before a new project would be given an approval date. This rescission of the old 2023 policy marks the 6th LNG-related issuance from the DOE since Trump too office. Things seem to be in motion here.
"Liberation Day" is upon us. Whatever that means. Trump is expected to make an address this afternoon to the nation, and the world who looks on with breath held tight as we wait to learn what type of trade tariffs he will be shelling out next. Apparently the tariffs will go into effect immediately once announced and will impact all trading partners the U.S. holds.
DJIA: 41,736.08
S&P: 5,580.76
Nasdaq: 17,207.01
Oil (WTI): 71.20
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.54
LNG shipping rates plunge on increasing vessel availability
US throws off the regulatory shackles of red tape snags to unlock LNG export bonanza
Trump to announce new tariffs today on what he calls "Liberation Day" amid fears of higher prices
Tuesday: April 1st 2025
Qatar is planning an expansion of its LNG export capacity; an increase that could see an 85% increase of its 77mtpa (2024) to 142 mtpa by 2030. By some estimates, Qatar could produce enough to account for 25% of the worlds LNG supply by the end of the decade. Analysts project Qatar can produce its LNG for $0.3/mmbtu, vs $3-5/mmbtu globally, which are a function of:
1) associated liquids production in the country pays for most of the LNG construction costs, and
2) access to cheap labor from southeast Asia keeps costs low and on schedule.
Asian spot markets of LNG are at their lowest levels in 6 months due to higher reserve levels from a mild winter climate. Though these prices are low, they are expected to have support from the bottom from stronger European demand. The average LNG price in May at North-East Asian hubs was $13.00/mmbtu, down from $13.60/mmbtu last month.
In a recent article from Reuters, Shell is mentioned to predict a 60% increase (from 400mmtpa) in global LNG demand by 2040 (630-718 mmtpa), driven largely from:
1) economic growth in Asia
2) AI impact, and
3) efforts to cut emissions in heavy industries and transportation
In India, the IEA predicts natural gas consumption to jump 60% between 2023 and 2030, doubling the country's demand for imports of LNG from exporting nations.
The U.S. has the potential to quadruple its LNG export supply by 2030, and become the leading LNG exporter globally with 180 mmtpa, which will account for a third of the projected global supply at that time according to Shell. The combined Qatari and U.S. supply of LNG if all projects are completed successfully, are projected to account for 60% of the global LNG supply by 2035.
DJIA: 41,879.75
S&P: 5,597.53
Nasdaq: 17,221.55
Oil (WTI): 71.39
ICE NGX (T-1): 2.58
Qatar's bigger LNG expansion to squeeze US, other rivals
Asian spot LNG prices at nearly 6-month low on muted Chinese demand
Shell expects 60% rise in global LNG demand by 2040 as Asia leads growth