Thursday: September 25th
Starbuck's new CEO Brian Nicol has led two large scale layoffs in its corporate offices since taking the helm roughly a year ago. After this most recent round of layoffs, the company would have harvested 20% of its corporate workforce using September 2024 figures (2,000 employees). The motivating factor here is to cut costs and funnel funds into improving their existing stores. Reducing the size of the workforce is not the only strategy being employed to reduce costs; the company is closing stores as well including 2 flagship locations in Seattle.
TSX 60: 1,753.49
DJIA: 46,097.43
S&P: 6,608.19
Nasdaq: 22,318.77
Oil (WTI): 64.80
ICE NGX (T-1): - 0.49
Starbucks to Cut Hundreds More Corporate Jobs, Close Stores
Wednesday: September 24th
The efficacy of Trump's tariff plan is still very unclear. First, the impacts of the tariffs on higher goods have not yet been fully reflected into the prices of goods in the economy - companies will not fully increase their prices to reflect the more expensive inputs until the cheaper inventory of inputs have been utilized. Thus, the impact of the tariffs on inflation reflected through CPI data is not yet clearly exemplified.
Secondly, in terms of revenue generation, the numbers look promising, but still fall short when compared with the Fiscal deficit set forth by Congressional Budget Office - projected to be $1.9 trillion in 2025. The deficit is set to increase by $112 billion from last year. Initial numbers are promising however, as the first 6 months of 2025, tariff revenue totaled $122 billion (6.4% of the 2025 deficit on a semi-annual basis). Total government revenue for the first 6 months is up $262 billion since the same time last year but the deficit still rises. So the answer is clear: Tariffs are not the magic pill for eliminating the U.S. fiscal deficit.
Oil prices received a surprise boost today as U.S. inventories were lower than expectations, relieving worries of an over-supply environment. U.S. crude inventories fell by 607,000 barrels last week compared to a 235,000 barrel build projected by analysts. Oil prices also received supports after reports of Ukraine striking 2 Russian oil pumping stations overnight.
TSX 60: 1,763.83
DJIA: 46,368.94
S&P: 6,669.79
Nasdaq: 22,656.02
Oil (WTI): 63.64
ICE NGX (T-1): - 0.42
How Zelensky’s Charm Offensive Reversed Trump’s Skepticism on Ukraine
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?
Oil prices surge 3% to 7-week high as surprise US stockpile draw adds to supply worries
Tuesday: September 23rd
Powell and the Fed are leaving the door open for further cuts this year. With the recent 25 basis point cut, the central bank has acknowledged the softness in the job market as being a concern. However, with inflation still being high, no doubt being impacted by the Trumponian tariff policy, cutting rates too quickly can spur inflation higher or keep it at its elevated level. Hopefully, with the tariffs well underway to being digested into the economy (though not completely), there can be a more normal curve to the economic cycle in the quarters to come.
The U.S. is getting out of the Renewable Energy game. The latest tax bill set forth by the Trump administration is set to wind down more than $400 billion in estimated subsidies for renewable companies. Additionally, the administration has halted the construction of the near complete offshore wind farm called the Revolution Wind project and canceled $3.7 billion of funding for "technologies that could reduce industrial emissions".
Oil jumps as Iraq's federal and Kurdistan regional government fails to close deal with oil companies to resume 230,000 bpd of piped oil to the world market through Turkey. The deal has been on hold since March 2023 and was expected to be restarted imminently, driving concerns that resumption would further exacerbate a global oversupply environment.
TSX 60: 1,771.89
DJIA: 46,364.11
S&P: 6,692.44
Nasdaq: 22,782.72
Oil (WTI): 62.33
ICE NGX (T-1): - 0.35
Powell Describes Rates as ‘Modestly Restrictive,’ Keeping Door Open to Cuts
The U.S. Is Forfeiting the Clean-Energy Race to China
Oil rises $1 a barrel as restart of Kurdish oil exports stalls
Monday: September 22nd
There's evidence pointing to the fact that since 1980, the stock market's average return in the 12 months prior to bear markets surfaced was roughly 26%. Comparing the charts, the current economic environment is painting a similar picture, when comparing only a few factors.
The world is putting stock in a 2-state solution to peace in the Middle-East. U.K., Australia and Canada said they will formally recognize Palestine as a state with France and other nations expected to follow suit. More than 140 countries already recognize a Palestinian state. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disagrees with these countries' rulings stating that they are only rewarding Hamas who still is holding dozens of hostages from the October 7 attack. As a result of the recognition of a state, Palestine could open a foreign embassy in the U.K., Australia and Canada. Additionally, Palestine could take Israel to international court for its occupation because of the recognition of being a state.
The world's oil markets are poised for an oversupply scenario. OPEC+ have been raising output and Russian sanctioned oil is still flowing regardless of restrictions. Kuwait's oil production capacity sits at 3.2 million bpd, which is at its highest on record in over 10 years.
TSX 60: 1,762.35
DJIA: 46,206.69
S&P: 6,654.28
Nasdaq: 22,606.59
Oil (WTI): 62.74
ICE NGX (T-1): 0.07
Black Swan Manager Sees Huge Rally, Then 1929-Style Crash
In Historic Shift, U.K., Australia and Canada Recognize a Palestinian State
Oil dips as Iraq exports rise amid demand concerns
Monday: September 8th
It is projected that the combined tax savings under Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' will be $1.2 billion in 2025 for ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy, combined. BP has been documented to say that the savings in taxes under the new bill will likely offset any pressures from tariffs. The oil industry and lobby groups have strong access to Trump and his administration.
TSX 60: 1,721.20
DJIA: 45,430.61
S&P: 6,498.09
Nasdaq: 21,806.22
Oil (WTI): 62.00
ICE NGX (T-1): 0.97
Oil Tycoons Bet Big on Trump. It’s Paying Off.
Friday: September 5th
In a recent ruling in the United States, a previous law was overturned regarding Electric Vehicles (EV's). The previous wording that was passed overstated the efficiency of the EV's which would have served to increase the sales of EV's in the future. The wording was overturned, serving as a win for the traditional combustion engine industry. The case was ran by 13 Republican State attorney generals, and is named Iowa et al. v. Wright et al., 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, No. 24-1721.
Things are looking like the fall is coming down south. The U.S. reported slower job growth in August, and its unemployment rate increased to just below its 4-year high. This indicates a late growth stage, or even a slowdown phase in the business cycle, and points to the expectation for rate cuts to be in the near future. Job growth has slowed in the United States since April, which many experts points to Trump's Rose Garden speach as the kicking-off point. In the last three months, new jobs averaged 29,000 per month, compared to 82,000 for the same period in 2024.
It does seem that the economic policies are the clear leading factor for businesses choosing to reign in spending and hiring. With Trump staying strong on his economic agenda, the only shelter can come from lower rates. The issue at hand with this alternative is that as the saying goes, fiscal policy is the leash and the economy is a dog. It is effective in pulling the dog back, but is a poor instrument to pushing the dog forward.
Notably, Federal government payrolls have dropped 97,000 since January in the U.S.
TSX 60: 1,718.57
DJIA: 45,656.49
S&P: 6,529.08
Nasdaq: 21,860.44
Oil (WTI): 63.33
ICE NGX (T-1): 0.62
Putin Says Russia Will Strike Any Western Troops in Ukraine
US appeals court voids Biden-era electric vehicle fuel economy rule
US unemployment rate near 4-year high as labor market hits stall speed
Thursday: September 4th
Under the new ownership agreement between Intel and the United States government, Intel no longer needs to meet certain requirements under the CHIPS Act in order to receive its billions of public funding. The company no longer needs to disclose the percentage of FCF it gets from each project it endeavors past a certain threshold, and the government has agreed to remove some workforce policy requirements "and most other restrictions". These do not include the restrictions on Intel regarding the restrictions on funds from the CHIPS act being used for dividends/repurchases, and changes to the ownership structure of the company.
The company is expected to receive the remaining $5.7 billion in grants that were previously awarded through the Act.
TSX 60: 1,706.33
DJIA: 45,204.87
S&P: 6,456.60
Nasdaq: 21,539.91
Oil (WTI): 63.82
ICE NGX (T-1): 0.15
Intel’s CHIPS Act Requirements Waived After U.S. Government Takes Stake