Thursday: October 16th
Sustained low AECO prices are putting natural gas producers in the WCSB region in a difficult spot. Shutting in wells is not a technically simple task to undertake, which is why many producers have been continuing to produce their gas and selling it to the market at a loss after transport fees. In the past couple of weeks AECO has actually gone negative as the supply glut still remains from the buildup which prevailed in anticipation of LNG Canada coming online. Now, months after LNG Canada shipped its first tanker, storage levels of the gaseous resource remain spiked. Will producers accelerate shutting in wells or will an extreme cold snap save the day?
TSX 60: 1,802.20
DJIA: 46,289.09
S&P: 6,689.02
Nasdaq: 22,764.40
Oil (WTI): 58.77
Canadian natgas producers cut output amid record low prices
Tuesday: October 14th
Trump is trying to build on the momentum of the brokered cease-fire between Hamas and Israel. After making a stop in Israel on Monday to show his support for the first stages of ending this war, Trump visited Egypt for a summit consisting of nearly two dozen country representatives across the Middle East and Europe. The conference ended with a signing of a "vague" peace pledge which included the U.S., Turkey, Egypt and Qatar with hopes of securing peace more broadly in the Middle East. This will be extremely difficult as tensions run deep in the regions between countries and cultures.
Baker Hughes (Energy Services company) spoke at a recent conference and claimed that Steel and Aluminum tariffs would ad $100-$200 million of costs to the company in 2025. With gross profits of $5.24 billion for the 12 months ending June 30, 2025, these costs are manageable assuming proper planning for the services company.
TSX 60: 1,756.77
DJIA: 45,871.89
S&P: 6,602.49
Nasdaq: 22,388.04
Oil (WTI): 59.58
Trump’s Big Gamble on Tackling the Middle East’s Intractable Problems
Oil executives see market rebalancing from surplus in medium-term
Oil executives flag increased costs from Trump's tariffs
Friday: October 10th
Rounding out the week with a successful IPO on the TSX - only the second one this year! Rockpoint (RGSI.TO) is a natural gas storage operator that owns 6 facilities across California and Alberta. The market has responded well as the stock is up 4% since its initial offering and lines up well as storage levels in North America are starting to build steadily in preparation for winter. The company is majority owned by Brookfield Asset Management.
A calmer road may be ahead as Israel and Palestine seek an off-ramp from their 2 years of fighting. Early signs of an agreement for peace between the two sides brokered by Trump are being reported. The two sides have entered into the first phase of the deal which includes a cease-fire but the war is still a stretch from being concluded and far from being resolved. The lasting impacts of this war will leave scars for generations. As of now, both sides, Hamas and Israel have agreed to exchange their prisoners (48 held by Hamas, over 2,000 held in Israeli prisons) and put an end to their conflict.
TSX 60: 1,784.71
DJIA: 46,394.88
S&P: 6,740.49
Nasdaq: 23,043.52
Oil (WTI): 61.49
Calgary energy company breaks Canada's IPO dry spell — and gets some investor love
As Truce Takes Effect, Israelis and Gazans Allow Themselves to Hope
Thursday: October 9th
European companies are pushing back on the Sustainability laws put in place which require companies to fix problematic supply chain practices regarding human rights and environmental issues. In a letter written by TotalEnergies CEO and Siemens CEO, the pair called for the complete abolishment of the standing laws to allow room for European companies to become more competitive. The letter was co-written by the two CEO's and was written on behalf of 46 European companies. This action points to an interesting development in the business environment straddled with slow economic growth and inflation causing tariffs imposed by the worlds largest country; the U.S..
Today, Trump's administration released news of sanctions being levied on 100 individuals suspected to be included in the oil trade between China and Iran which have skirted the international sanctions levied on Iranian oil products. This move is significant, however, does not address the barter strategy being employed between China and Iran as was highlighted on Monday, October 6th below. Pointing to a potentially well constructed arrangement between the two nations that avoids direct reaction from international governing bodies.
TSX 60: 1,794.14
DJIA: 46,622.31
S&P: 6,760.50
Nasdaq: 23,045.33
Oil (WTI): 62.31
TotalEnergies, Siemens urge EU to abolish climate law, letter shows
US imposes sanctions on China refinery, others for Iran oil purchases
Wednesday: October 8th
Unofficial job market figures in the United States indicate a continued tough job market. New jobs added in September was 17,000, lower than the already weak August figure of 22,000. Although companies are not hiring, they are also not firing according to findings. With lower immigration, demand for new jobs is reduced - only limiting the worst case scenario. Official job figures were expected last Friday, however given the Federal government being shutdown, this report was not released.
Progress seemed to have been made in Mark Carney's latest business trip to the White House. Even though no deal was made on trade between the two nations relating to the Steel and Aluminum sector, discussions and plans for further work over the next two weeks on both sides of the table to bring the topic closer to conclusion. From the PM's official website: "Canada currently has the best trade agreement of any U.S. trading partner, with 85% of Canada-U.S. trade now tariff-free, and our cooperation is further improving border security. ". It's possible that an oil/gas pipeline agreement (hint: Keystone) may be a pivotal piece to settling all trade disputes between us and the States.
TSX 60: 1,797.87
DJIA: 46,649.32
S&P: 6,723.87
Nasdaq: 22,852.32
Oil (WTI): 62.05
The Unofficial Jobs Numbers Are In and It’s Rough Out There
No Deal on Tariffs After Canadian PM Mark Carney’s Meeting With Trump
Prime Minister Carney concludes working visit to Washington, D.C.
Tuesday: October 7th
OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 137,000 bpd starting November. The market was expecting a larger increase from the Cartel, highlighting a still cautious tone from the group. Oil demand in India rose 7% yoy, providing a small beam of optimism, though the market still is predicting a supply glut given the slower economic growth forecasts globally in the coming years. Additionally, JPMorgan released data showing global oil inventories rose each week in September, culminating in 123 mm barrels added to storage last month.
On a separate note regarding professionalism, the prowess of HoF NFL running back Jim Brown rings a distinct tune. Brown was a trailblazer on the gridiron averaging 104 rushing yards a game, totaled 126 touchdowns and never missing a game in his 7 seasons in the league before retiring to pursue a career in film acting. What is an overlooked professional skill that Brown employed was his actions between the whistles. After every down, Brown would slowly trudge back to the huddle as if being hit by a semi, never giving any signal of pain or fatigue. The competition could never catch a read on the running back before he sprung off for a long cross-route. The lesson: Professionals operate with tact even when the clock isn't running.
TSX 60: 1,802.51
DJIA: 46,700.90
S&P: 6,746.14
Nasdaq: 22,972.37
Oil (WTI): 61.73
Oil settles flat amid OPEC+ output hike, supply glut fears
Monday: October 6th
China and Iran have been skirting the West's sanctions on Iranian oil through a cleaver barter-style system. China receives the shipment of Tehran's oil, then in exchange, send's its crews over to Iran to build infrastructure. There may still be exchange of cash, but the majority of the value being exchanged is a build-out-of-infrastructure-for-oil transaction. It is estimated that the value of this arrangement in 2024 was roughly $8.4 Billion, providing significant life-saving support to Iran who has been saddled with economic sanctions tied to it's involvement in the war unfolding in the West-Bank and it's nuclear program.
TSX 60: 1,808.73
DJIA: 46,776.04
S&P: 6,733.86
Nasdaq: 22,894.35
Oil (WTI): 61.14
How China Secretly Pays Iran for Oil and Avoids U.S. Sanctions
Wednesday: October 1st
Oil is on the slide as U.S. inventories build quicker than expected, slower economic activity in the United States and Asia persist, and the threat of further OPEC+ output cuts are expected to come in October.
The Alberta government is planning to spearhead a pipeline proposal for a new oil pipeline that will track through to the B.C. coast. The project will culminate the efforts of the provincial government, Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute, Enbridge, South bow and Trans Mountain. As of now, the Alberta government will not be committing to ownership of this project, nor will be expending significant capital. Rather, their aim is to shepherd the project forward and leave it available for private capital.
The U.S. government heads into a shutdown today as the Republicans and the Democrats failed to reach an agreement that would extend government funding past midnight on Tuesday. The longest shutdown in history was George Bush Sr's 35 days. History has shown that these shutdowns do very little to impact the long-term economic or markets trends.
TSX 60: 1,769.41
DJIA: 46,366.78
S&P: 6,664.92
Nasdaq: 22,530.94
Oil (WTI): 62.46
Oil slides to 17-week low on US and Asia economic worries, and expected OPEC+ production increase
Alberta plans to support proposal for new oil pipeline, Globe and Mail reports